The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990.
The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy looks weaker now than it did just three months ago, according to 36 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters see real GDP growing at an annual rate of 2.3 percent this quarter, down from the previous estimate of 3.3 percent. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect slower real GDP growth in 2010, 2011, and 2013.The forecasters see real GDP growing 2.9 percent in 2010, down from their prediction of 3.3 percent in the last survey. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 2.7 percent in 2011, 3.6 percent in 2012, and 2.6 percent in 2013.
The charts below provide some insight into the degree of uncertainty the forecasters have about their projections for the rate of growth in the annual-average level of real GDP. Each chart presents the forecasters’ previous and current estimates of the probability that growth will fall into each of 11 ranges. The forecasters have revised downward their estimate of the probability that growth will fall into the range of 3.0 to 4.9 percent in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013.
While they are projecting slower growth for the economy, they still see it growing steadily. This raises the odds of a downturn but it is still not likely. The forecasters see GDP growing at just under 3% for the next 2 years.
As well, the forecasters surveyed have reduced their growth projections for the next two years. They also see slightly higher unemployment than they did last quarter but they expect a gradual reduction in unemployment – down to 9% by the third quarter of 2011.
Expectations for inflation are lower this quarter but the forecast’s consensus does not expect deflation to occur. Over the horizon, expectations of future inflation is lower but still positive. The probability of deflation in 2010 or 2011 is coming in at between 1.6% and 4.3% (depending on year and measure of inflation). Inflation expectations have held steadily over time with little change.
List of the economist taking part in the survey:
Robert J. Barbera, Mount Lucas Management; Jay Brinkmann, Mortgage Bankers Association; Joseph Carson, Alliance Capital Management; Christine Chmura, Ph.D. andXiaobing Shuai, Ph.D., Chmura Economics & Analytics; Gary Ciminero, CFA, GLC Financial Economics; David Crowe, National Association of Home Builders; Rajeev Dhawan, Georgia State University; Shawn Dubravac, Consumer Electronics Association; Michael R. Englund, Action Economics, LLC; Robert C. Fry, Jr., DuPont; Stephen Gallagher, Societe Generale;Timothy Gill, NEMA; James Glassman, JP Morgan Chase & Co.; Ethan Harris, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch; Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.; William B. Hummer, Wayne Hummer Investments; IHS Global Insight; Peter Jaquette, PIRA Energy Group; Fred Joutz, Benchmark Forecasts and Research Program on Forecasting, George Washington University; Kurt Karl, Swiss Re; N. Karp, BBVA Compass; Walter Kemmsies and Daniel Solomon, Moffatt & Nichol; Jack Kleinhenz, Kleinhenz & Associates, Inc.; Thomas Lam,OSK Group/DMG & Partners; L. Douglas Lee, Economics from Washington; Allan R. Leslie, Economic Consultant; John Lonski, Moody’s Capital Markets Group; Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC; Dean Maki, Barclays Capital; Edward F. McKelvey, Goldman Sachs; Jim Meil, Eaton Corporation; Anthony Metz, Pareto Optimal Economics; Ardavan Mobasheri andDanielle Ferry, AIG Global Economic Research; Michael Moran, Daiwa Capital Markets America; Joel L. Naroff, Naroff Economic Advisors; Herbert E. Neil, Financial and Economic Strategies Corp.; Mark Nielson, Ph.D., MacroEcon Global Advisors; Michael P. Niemira, International Council of Shopping Centers; Luca Noto, Prima Sgr; Martin A. Regalia, U.S. Chamber of Commerce; David Resler, Nomura Securities International, Inc.;Philip Rothman, East Carolina University; John Silvia, Wells Fargo; Allen Sinai, Decision Economics, Inc; Tara M. Sinclair, Research Program on Forecasting, George Washington University; Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D., University of Central Florida; Constantine G. Soras, Ph.D., CGS Economic Consulting; Neal Soss, Credit Suisse; Stephen Stanley, Pierpont Securities; Susan M. Sterne, Economic Analysis Associates, Inc.; Thomas Kevin Swift, American Chemistry Council; Lea Tyler, Oxford Economics USA, Inc.; Jay N. Woodworth, Woodworth Holdings, Ltd.; Mark Zandi, Moody’s Economy.com; Ellen Beeson Zentner, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd.
