Dec
07

Secret is out: Fed bailed out big banks with amount more the half of US GDP

The Federal Reserve and the big banks fought for more than two years to keep details of the largest bailout in U.S. history a secret. Now, the rest of the world can see what it was missing.
The Fed didn’t tell anyone which banks were in trouble so deep they required a combined $1.2 trillion on Dec. 5, 2008, their single neediest day. Bankers didn’t mention that they took tens of billions of dollars in emergency loans at the same time they were assuring investors their firms were healthy. And no one calculated until now that banks reaped an estimated $13 billion of income by taking advantage of the Fed’s below-market rates, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its January issue.
Saved by the bailout, bankers lobbied against government regulations, a job made easier by the Fed, which never disclosed the details of the rescue to lawmakers even as Congress doled out more money and debated new rules aimed at preventing the next collapse.
A fresh narrative of the financial crisis of 2007 to 2009 emerges from 29,000 pages of Fed documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act and central bank records of more than 21,000 transactions. While Fed officials say that almost all of the loans were repaid and there have been no losses, details suggest taxpayers paid a price beyond dollars as the secret funding helped preserve a broken status quo and enabled the biggest banks to grow even bigger.
$7.77 Trillion
The amount of money the central bank parceled out was surprising even to Gary H. Stern, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from 1985 to 2009, who says he “wasn’t aware of the magnitude.” It dwarfed the Treasury Department’s better-known $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. Add up guarantees and lending limits, and the Fed had committed $7.77 trillion as of March 2009 to rescuing the financial system, more than half the value of everything produced in the U.S. that year.

Citigroup, Bank of America, RBS, Wells Fargo Top Recipients

Permanent link to this article: http://www.wealthson.com/1768/secret-is-out-fed-bailed-out-big-banks-with-amount-more-the-half-of-us-gdp

Nov
25

How will financial events unfold in 2012?

money thumb How will financial events unfold in 2012?2011 has been year of mixed reactions and sentiments for financial markets. Economies kept on struggling to leap out of sovereign debt crisis but only found themselves in greater mess.

US had to increase its debt ceiling yet again this year, Britain’s debt cut measures measurably failed as government had to give up on falling economic growth, Chinese economy continued its growth performance with some serious concerns about its property market and government debts, Canada somewhat proved that its financial system is still safer than others, credit rating agencies kept on playing with government bond yields with S&P downgrading US (true) and France (mistake) but star of 2011 financial mockery show was none other than most (blunder)ful thing ever created by humans, no price for guessing that one- EURO.

EURO was such a pain in a**  for entire financial system but the king (Sarkozy) and Queen(Merkel) of Euro zone never wanted to remove that pain from their a**. I have never seen such a strong POLITICAL WILL to debacle the entire financial system in order to save a currency.

So, what do we have in for 2012 then? Next year will be a year when markets will prove that political will can not win over the markets. Be ready for the time where bailouts wouldn’t work any more as markets will restructure themselves through much awaited defaults. Following major events would mark 2012:

1. Defaults by all the peripheral economies of Euro Zone one by one. Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain and more.

2. Defaulting countries finally, and for their good, leaving Euro Zone and reintroducing their currencies at devalued levels.

3. Euro default causing a bit of systematic defaults, bank runs and financial mess all over the world.

4. Stock markets tumbling down to 2007 levels.

5. US treasury bond yields hitting further lows.

6. US Dollar, Yen rising higher on a run for safer heavens.

7. Crude Oil again coming down to 50-60 levels as global slowdown hits in.

8. World enters into recession.

9. Gold would gain on its prices as a safe heaven to invest.

10. Emerging economies would slowdown. China would still grow the satisfactory rates and controlled inflation because we will never know if the data is manipulated by the Chinese government.

Well, if that is the seen then what investment strategy should an investor go for?

Answer is simple and can be comprehended from above 10 points:

  • Go short on stocks/shares/Indices.
  • Long on GOLD
  • Short on Crude Oil
  • long on US Dollars
  • long on US Treasury Bonds
  • Short Short Short EURO

 

Yes, 2012 may be a tough year. Recession is very likely scenario now. Banks may loose lot of money. Governments will fail on payments. Bankruptcies might be filed next year. But, all these will turn out to be the best measure possible for global economies. Markets will eventually correct themselves.

Permanent link to this article: http://www.wealthson.com/1766/how-will-financial-events-unfold-in-2012

Nov
18

Euro was always a disaster

Mr. Farage once again went heavy on the people responsible for creation and administration of Euro.

 

Permanent link to this article: http://www.wealthson.com/1763/euro-was-always-a-disaster

Nov
17

Chinese regime is already bankrupt according to a professor at Chinese University of Hong Kong

Professor Lang thumb Chinese regime is already bankrupt according to a professor at  Chinese University of Hong KongLarry Lang, chair professor of Finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, delivered a lecture to his students where he described the real state of Chinese debts. He asked not to do any recording, audio or video, of the lecture in any way and asked students not to speak about it outside the classroom as speaking anything against the regime is strictly forbidden in China. He told students how the data about the economy are manipulated and truth is kept away from the world.

One of the student did the audio recording of the lecture and now it is on the Internet.

Here are the some of the important facts about the Chinese Economy he explained in his lecture:

Firstly, that the regime’s debt sits at about 36 trillion yuan (US$5.68 trillion). This calculation is arrived at by adding up Chinese local government debt (between 16 trillion and 19.5 trillion yuan, or US$2.5 trillion and US$3 trillion), and the debt owed by state-owned enterprises (another 16 trillion, he said). But with interest of two trillion per year, he thinks things will unravel quickly.

Secondly, that the regime’s officially published inflation rate of 6.2 percent is fabricated. The real inflation rate is 16 percent, according to Lang.

Thirdly, that there is serious excess capacity in the economy, and that private consumption is only 30 percent of economic activity. Lang said that beginning this July, the Purchasing Managers Index, a measure of the manufacturing industry, plunged to a new low of 50.7. This is an indication, in his view, that China’s economy is in recession.

Fourthly, that the regime’s officially published GDP of 9 percent is also fabricated. According to Lang’s data, China’s GDP has decreased 10 percent. He said that the bloated figures come from the dramatic increase in infrastructure construction, including real estate development, railways, and highways each year (accounting for up to 70 percent of GDP in 2010).

Fifthly, that taxes are too high. Last year, the taxes on Chinese businesses (including direct and indirect taxes) were at 70 percent of earnings. The individual tax rate sits at 81.6 percent, Lang said.

Once the “economic tsunami” starts, the regime will lose credibility and China will become the poorest country in the world, Lang said.

Many Economist around the world agree with the Lang’s analysis. Academicians in China are not allowed to speak against the regime  but Lang did it, may be because he is a professor in Hong Kong or may be he never thought contents of his lecture can go out of the closed-doors.

Permanent link to this article: http://www.wealthson.com/1762/chinese-regime-is-already-bankrupt-according-to-a-professor-at-chinese-university-of-hong-kong

Nov
17

Are aliens buying our products?

Economists are constantly urging governments to adopt policies that would reduce global imbalances—which, in crude terms, means that China should slash its current-account surplus and America its deficit. Yet they ignore the biggest imbalance of all: the current-account surplus that planet Earth appears to run with extraterrestrials. In theory, countries’ current-account balances should all sum to zero because one country’s export is another’s import. However, if you add up all countries’ reported current-account transactions(exports minus imports of goods and services, net investment income, workers’ remittances and other transfers), the world exported $331 billion more than it imported in 2010, according to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. The fund forecasts that the global current-account surplus will rise to almost $700 billion by 2014.

world trade balance thumb Are aliens buying our products?

The puzzle is compounded by the fact that the world ran a persistent current-account deficit for at least three decades until 2005. In 2001 the deficit was equivalent to 0.5% of global GDP, but by next year the IMF’s forecasts imply that the surplus could hit a record 0.8% of GDP (see left-hand chart). That turnaround exceeds the increase in China’s current-account surplus over the same period. Indeed, the global “surplus” now exceeds China’s.

Answer to the imbalance as given by The Economist:

What is going on? Past studies by the IMF concluded that the global deficit in the 1980s and 1990s was largely due to the underreporting of foreign-investment income by rich countries and the under-recording of freight receipts. But over the past decade, the “deficit” on investment income has diminished, partly because governments have cracked down on tax evasion and partly because interest rates have fallen. An IMF study in 2009, by Marco Terrones and Thomas Helbling, concluded that the biggest cause of the switch from a global current-account deficit to a surplus was mismeasurement of services. International trade in financial and legal services, insurance and consultancy is tricky to measure, and exporters are easier to identify than importers. For instance, law firms involved in cross-border deals are usually quite large, whereas most clients’ spending on their services is relatively small (though it may not seem that way to the clients). Exporters are thus more likely than importers to exceed the threshold for inclusion in the surveys used to track trade in services.

Permanent link to this article: http://www.wealthson.com/1759/are-aliens-buying-our-products

Nov
13

Slovenian bank system on brink of collapse

This is an extract from a letter written by an Slovenian economist to the Mish where is has described the pathetic condition of country’s banking system. Here are the points he made:

    1. Slovenian debt to GDP ratio has doubled since 2009 (one of highest growing on the planet)
    2. Our banking system is on the brink of collapse. Biggest bank (Nova Ljubljanska Banka – NLB) is owned by the government and almost all the money it has lent is sub-prime (much worse than in US up to 2007/08) or it was lent politically to chosen people who now can’t pay the debt back. NLB has 15% bad loans (payments being late more than 90-day) and the number is getting higher.
    3. Our housing market is frozen. Prices are not falling because no one is buying or selling. Most of the construction companies are bankrupt and they owe lots of money to banks. (percentage of loans that payments are late in construction sector is mind boggling 25%! – and is even growing!)
    4. Government has recapitalized NLB with 250 million €. It will probably do it again with 400 million. I have calculated that if the bank was for sale it would be sold for no more than 400 million €! So taxpayers have already 250M and will pay another 400M for what? For saving some banker’s ass because of his bad decisions? (And they call the bank "Slovenian silver"!)
    5. There is no interest in Slovenia to leave EU. Moreover, it may be better for incompetent bureaucrats from EU to run the monetary system because things would be much worse if run by incompetent Slovenian bureaucrats.
    6. Slovenian banks will need to borrow at least 5 billion € in 2012 and get about 1 billion € of fresh capital. Do you know someone who will give them the money? I truly hope it will not be the taxpayer.
    7. When the banks start selling real estate, the market will collapse 20-30% in a year or two. That will further deteriorate bank balance sheets and the problems will be much worse.
    8. Our labor market is totally inflexible and unemployment rate is getting higher (currently at 11.5%)

Complete article by Mish can be read on his blog here: Slovenian Economist Emails "Our Banking System is on Brink of Collapse"; Housing Crash and Incompetent Bureaucrats Blamed

    Permanent link to this article: http://www.wealthson.com/1756/slovenian-bank-system-on-brink-of-collapse

    Nov
    13

    Slovenia can be the first to leave EU; Government Bond Yields rise above 7% for the first time since joining Euro

    slovenia thumb Slovenia can be the first to leave EU; Government Bond Yields rise above 7% for the first time since joining EuroSlovenia’s 10-year government bonds slid for a fourth day, with the yield topping 7 percent for the first time since the nation adopted the euro in 2007, as the debt crisis in Europe roils markets.
    The yield rose to 7.14 percent at 1:05 p.m. in Ljubljana, according to Bloomberg data. Slovenia, which holds early elections next month, was cut by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings on the government’s collapse, the poor economic outlook and a weak banking industry. The former Yugoslav republic is also a victim of its “proximity” to Italy, which is struggling to fend off an investor crisis of confidence.

    Bostjan Vasle, Slovenia’s chief economic forecaster, says Slovenia Must Tackle Debt as Recession Looms

    Slovenia’s next government must cut public spending as the likelihood of the nation sliding into a recession because of the euro region’s debt crisis increases, according to the government’s forecasting institute.
    Slovenes will vote on Dec. 4 after Prime Minister Borut Pahor’s government was toppled in a no-confidence vote on Sept. 20. Its failure to cut public spending and the rejection of the pension changes in June prompted credit rating companies to lower the country’s assessment.
    The export-driven economy is faltering as demand in Europe weakens after governments embarked on spending cuts to allay investors’ concern over debt sustainability. Gross domestic product weakened to an annual 0.9 percent in second quarter from a 2.3 percent pace in the first three months.
    “The key challenge for the new Cabinet will be to consolidate public finances,” Bostjan Vasle, the institute’s director told reporters in Ljubljana today. “We can’t rule out the possibility economic growth will be negative in some quarters as there are visible signs of an economic slowdown in Europe.”

    It might be easier for the Slovenia to leave the EMU as it has not been bailed out by EFSF, IMF. Slovenia’s joining to EU was more a reasonless step and since its inception Slovenia has not gained much from it. Rather, its been more bad than good.

    Leaving Euro would be a hard task if Slovenia waits more. There are problems which need to be dealt very cautiously while leaving Euro. For example, if someone has got a mortgage loan in Euro and his country disintegrates from EMU, then he will have to pay in the local currency which would mean that he will have much difficult time paying back his mortgages. Certainly, leaving Euro won’t be easy for any country but being with Euro would lead to nowhere either.

    Permanent link to this article: http://www.wealthson.com/1755/slovenia-can-be-the-first-to-leave-eu-government-bond-yields-rise-above-7-for-the-first-time-since-joining-euro

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