Tag Archive: Recession
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Oct 10
Real Time Probability of recession 20.6%
Marcelle Chauvet, Professor of Economics at University of California, works on real time probability of recession. The research is published by CREFC, Centre for research on Economic and Financial Cycles. By real time, they mean a delay of 1 quarter. Findings in the report are better projection of economic health than NBER reports. Probability of …
Permanent link to this article: http://www.wealthson.com/871/real-time-probability-of-recession-20-6
Sep 24
We are still in recession says Warren Buffett
"We’re still in a recession," Buffett told CNBC television in an interview broadcast on Thursday. "We’re not gonna be out of it for a while, but we will get out." On Monday, the National Bureau of Economic Research said the world’s largest economy ended an 18-month recession in June 2009, but cautioned that its …
Permanent link to this article: http://www.wealthson.com/838/we-are-still-in-recession-says-warren-buffett
Sep 07
Messy Fed pushing US into ‘Liquidity Trap’
Bob Chapman writes in his latest issue of International Forecaster: Major Increases In Debt, The Mess The Fed Has Created, Liquidity Trap, The Way The World Is Shaped Behind The Scenes, Bond Market Bubble, No Sales For Homes, Defence Companies Hoping To Block Disclosure, Scepticism On Policy Tools. To fund its bailouts and stimulus, US …
Permanent link to this article: http://www.wealthson.com/783/messy-fed-pushing-us-into-liquidity-trap
Sep 03
10 recession signals: Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank’s Peter Hooper doesn’t believe that a double-dip into recession is the most likely scenarios, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t a significant threat. Lower-probability scenarios deserve extreme scrutiny if they are high-impact, and according to Mr. Hooper the risks of a recession have increased substantially as of late. Deutsche Bank: Fears of a …
Permanent link to this article: http://www.wealthson.com/760/10-recession-signals-deutsche-bank
Sep 02
Possibility of another recession in US is 25%
The U.S. economy is so bad that the chance of avoiding a double dip back into recession may actually be pretty good. The sectors of the economy that traditionally drive it into recession are already so depressed it’s difficult to see them getting a lot worse, said Ethan Harris, head of developed markets economics research …
Permanent link to this article: http://www.wealthson.com/746/possibility-of-another-recession-in-us-is-25
Aug 16
Are we moving towards long run Global Stagnation?
With every passing day and every news that comes in from governments of developed world, we are indeed getting assured of arrival of an era of slow growth worldwide. Reasons are simple and straight. No progress of biggest economy of the world, Uncle Sam, is bound to slow the economic growth of the world. A …
Permanent link to this article: http://www.wealthson.com/439/are-we-moving-towards-long-run-global-stagnation
Recent Posts
- Greenspan says equity stimulus is driving economy ..no sir, markets are not economy!! May 2, 2012It seems Alan Greenspan, former chairman of Federal Reserve, is speaking ‘Bernankian’ language these days which precisely means ‘Fed is always right’. Here are few important things he said in an interview on Bloomberg: Fed rates didn’t cause housing bubble Stocks are CHEAP Equity stimulus is driving economy Equity stimulus is underestimated Housing markets a […]
- European Economic summary for 22nd March 2012 March 22, 2012Eurozone PMI Composite 48.7 – lower than expected. Consensus 49.6. Previous 49.3. Eurozone PMI Manufacturing 47.7 – lower than expected. Consensus 49.5. Previous 49.0. Eurozone PMI Services 48.7 – lower than expected. Consensus 49.2. Previous 48.8. Eurozone Industrial Orders s.a. -2.3% m/m – lower than expected. Consensus -2.2% m/m. Previous 1.9% m/m. Revise […]
- Why is crude oil going down again? March 10, 20122 weeks ago when crude oil was rocketing up, many analysts came up with different explanations why crude oil would reach $140 and some said it would go till $180. That doesn’t seem possible to me anymore. Firstly let us see why everyone was so upbeat on oil: US WOULD ATTACK ON IRAN SUPPLY SIDE … Continue reading » […]
- Ratings and Outlook of European countries by three major rating agencies March 10, 2012Let us see where these countries stand as per their ratings by rating agencies and find out who would go burst in which order. It seems Germany is the only country for which all the three rating agencies unilaterally agree on stable outlook. UK, Netherland and Austria are in stable zone. But look at the … Continue reading » […]
- Why Greek PSI deal is a credit event March 10, 2012Zero Hedge comes up with amazing analysis and prediction most of the time. Here is another flow diagram from them showing CDS triggers as the only possible outcome with the current Greek PSI deal. As seen from the diagram, there is high probability CDS triggers (of the sort highlighted in red circle). Even if that … Continue reading » […]
- Fascist European Union and Greek revolution March 8, 2012[…]
- Crude Oil cruising towards year high February 23, 2012Crude Oil (WTI) is going high everyday. As I write this article it stands at 108.56 and shows no signs of moving down. If it goes like this then very soon we would see crude oil at $115 which is my target for now. It would probably consolidate around those levels before again taking a … Continue reading » […]
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Name: Hitesh